AVIAIDXThe short version
PT Avia Avian Tbk
Avian Brands is Indonesia's largest decorative-paint maker: a family-controlled, net-cash franchise with peer-beating margins and a dominant distribution network, now trading roughly two-thirds below its December-2021 IPO price.
The chart covers recent months: a climb to $0.022 in late April 2026, a slide to $0.016 by early June, then a steadying near $0.017 — still a fraction of the $0.065 December-2021 listing price.
$0.017
Share price
~$1.0B
Market value
$487M
FY2025 revenue
~$250M
Net cash & investments
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Financials
Five years of steady single-digit growth, with a flat-EPS year now forecast
Income statement, FY2023–FY2027E
| Period | Revenue ($M) | Net profit ($M) | EPS ($) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | 456 | 107 | 0.0017 |
| FY2024 | 463 | 103 | 0.0017 |
| FY2025 | 487 | 105 | 0.0017 |
| FY2026E | 480 | 97 | 0.0016 |
| FY2027E | 506 | 108 | 0.0017 |
FY2026–27 columns are consensus estimates; all figures in US dollars.
- Growth that slowed, not reversed. Revenue compounded about 4.6% a year from 2021 to 2025 and net profit about 5%, lifting EPS from $0.0015 (2022) to $0.0017 (2025). The one soft year was 2022, when revenue dipped 1.3%.
- Profit becomes cash. Free cash flow ran $85–91M through the period, close to reported net profit — the business converts nearly all of its earnings to cash while carrying almost no debt.
- The forward puzzle. Consensus has FY2026 EPS ($0.0016) just below FY2025 even as revenue climbs to $480M; the missing lift is a fading interest coupon, and Q1 2026 sales already ran +16.8%.
The de-rating
The business kept growing while the multiple collapsed
~11x
Trailing P/Efrom ~40x at the 2021 IPO
~$1.0B
Market value nowfrom ~$4.0B at end-2021
+22%
Net profit vs IPO year$100M → $104M
21.5%
Net margin (FY2025)roughly double the peer set
Almost all of the decline is the multiple compressing, not earnings falling.
- The re-rating math. On FY2025 earnings of $0.0017 a share, moving from ~11x toward the 12–14x base case is worth roughly $0.019–0.023 — about 10–29% above the recent $0.017, before the ~$250M of net cash. The counter: at ~11x with nearly all profit paid out, the price already embeds only ~2–5% perpetual growth, a fair mature-compounder level.
- Avian's market value fell from ~$4.0 billion at end-2021 to ~$1.0 billion by mid-2026 and its P/E compressed from ~40x to ~11x even as net profit rose from $100 million to $104 million, its management-estimated national paint share rose from ~20% (2020) to 26% (2025), and it now trades at about 11x against a 15x-58x listed-peer range while earning a 21.5% net margin — roughly double the peer set.
Related parties
Nearly half of cost of goods comes from family-controlled suppliers
Related-party share of cost of goods sold
Purchases from suppliers under the same family's control, as a share of COGS.
- Avian buys 44.7% of its cost of goods sold — $122 million in 2025, up from 36.2% in 2022 — from suppliers under the same family's control, a related-party dependence that offers a governance-discount explanation for why the shares trade at ~11x against a listed-peer median near 26x rather than the pure mispricing the cheapness case implies.
- Alignment or extraction. With ~45% of COGS from wholly family-owned suppliers, every $100 of above-market purchasing shifts about $27 from minority holders. The counter: Avian earns the peer set's best gross and net margins and converts nearly all profit to cash — hard to square with heavy tunnelling — and its one sizeable outside investment went to an arm's-length third party.
The franchise
One distribution network, two very different economics
2025 revenue by segment
Architectural Solutions$377M77%
Trading Goods$110M23%
Architectural earns a 51.6% gross margin; Trading Goods 18.0%.
- Leader by a distance. Management puts Avian's national paint share at ~26% in 2025, up from ~20% in 2020, sold through roughly 60,000 retail points and 124 owned distribution centres carrying about 2,600 SKUs.
- Where the profit sits. Architectural Solutions is the engine — $377M of 2025 revenue at a 51.6% gross margin — while lower-margin Trading Goods rides the same trucks and shelves. Roughly $440M of the $487M total moves through the group's own distributors.
Quality
The cheapest name in its peer group is also the most profitable
Avian versus listed paint peers
| Company | Net margin | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|
| Avian (AVIA) | 21.5% | 10.9x |
| Asian Paints | 12.4% | 58.4x |
| Sherwin-Williams | 10.9% | 32.1x |
| Nippon Paint | 7.7% | 19.8x |
| Kansai Paint | 5.4% | 14.9x |
Cross-market comparators; the nearest local comps are unlisted.
- Twice the peer margin. Avian's 21.5% net margin runs roughly double the nearest listed comparators, and it earns an 18.3% return on equity while holding net cash — an unusual pairing of quality and balance-sheet strength.
- Cheapest on the slide. Yet it changes hands near 11x earnings against a peer range of about 15x–58x. The bear reads that gap as deserved — cross-market peers, absent local comps, and a governance discount; the bull reads it as mispricing.
The tailwind
The market growth the IPO price assumed has not shown up
Paint-market growth: promised versus delivered
The ~40x IPO multiple embedded ~9.8% market growth; delivered revenue grew ~4.6%.
- A repriced thesis, not only sentiment. The forward market assumption has been cut from ~9.8% to ~6.5%, and Avian's own revenue compounded ~4.6% in rupiah — close to flat in dollars. Part of the de-rating is a rational markdown of a growth story that did not arrive.
- The long-run case is intact. Indonesia uses about 6 litres of paint per person a year against 8–15+ in Thailand, Malaysia and developed markets — real headroom if incomes rise, but a tailwind that has been slow to convert into volume.
Ownership & pay
A founder family that owns three-quarters of the company
Share register
| Holder | Type | Stake |
|---|---|---|
| PT Tancorp Surya Sentosa | Family holdco | 36.6% |
| PT Wahana Lancar Rejeki | Family holdco | 32.5% |
| Tanoko family members | Founders | 4.0% |
| Archipelago Investment | External >5% | 6.3% |
| Treasury shares | Buyback | 4.3% |
| Public float | Free float | 16.3% |
The Tanoko family controls roughly 73% and holds four of five board seats.
- Founders own the business. The Tanoko family controls about 73% of Avian and holds four of five board seats — the founder-with-skin-in-the-game profile, with the family's own wealth overwhelmingly in the same shares as minority holders.
- Paid through dividends, not salary. Aggregate key-management pay was $6.8M in 2025 — about 6.6% of net profit and not broken out per person; the family's return comes mainly from the near-100% dividend payout it shares with everyone.
Capital allocation
IPO cash went back to owners, not into the ground
Capital returned versus net profit
Dividends and buybacks have exceeded net profit since 2024 (~113% payout in FY2025).
- Returned, not deployed. Of the ~$396M net IPO raise, only $11M of a planned $55M expansion capex was spent; about $400M has since gone back to shareholders in dividends and buybacks.
- The cushion is being spent. A ~113% FY2025 payout is generous but leans on the balance sheet — cash and investments fell about 20% — so the ~10% shareholder yield depends on payout policy holding as the cash normalises.
Forward estimates
A fading interest coupon explains the flat forward EPS
Finance income (interest on undeployed cash)
Interest earned on the IPO cash — a coupon now fading as the cash is returned.
- The estimate has no growth in it. Consensus FY2026 EPS of $0.0016 sits just under FY2025's $0.0017 even as revenue is forecast up to $480M; the missing earnings lift is this interest income rolling off as the cash pile shrinks.
- Possibly conservative. Q1 2026 sales already ran +16.8% year on year, so a flat full-year EPS estimate may prove cautious — though Q1 gross margin slipped to 44.9%, which is the offsetting risk to watch.
Margin of safety
The floor is the earnings stream, not the assets
Per-share value anchors versus price
Net cash
$0.0043
Net current assets
$0.0064
Book value
$0.0097
Price (10 Jul 2026)
$0.017
The tangible-asset anchors all sit well below the $0.017 price.
- Thin asset cover. Book value (~$0.0097) and net current assets (~$0.0064) are roughly half the price, so the balance sheet is not the margin of safety — the support is the earnings stream and the near-absence of debt.
- Insolvency is off the table. Net cash covers total financial debt about 49x, interest is covered hundreds of times over, and the current ratio is ~5.4x. The downside case is a lower multiple on slower growth, not distress.
Valuation
About 11x — under 9x once the cash is stripped out
~11x
Trailing P/E
~8.9x
P/E ex-net-cash
~10%
Shareholder yield (FY2025)
21%
of market cap in net cash
Net cash and short-term investments are about a fifth of the market value.
- Cheap on the operating business. Strip the ~$250M of cash and short-term investments and the operating company changes hands near 9x earnings, with a ~10% dividend-and-buyback yield on top.
- What the price implies. At ~11x with nearly all earnings paid out, the embedded perpetual growth is only about 2–5% a year — so the question is whether Avian re-rates as a quality compounder or stays priced as a mature slow-grower.
Scenarios
Today's price sits at the top of the bear band, below the base case
Scenario fair-value bands ($/share)
Correctly repriced (9–11x)
$0.014–0.018
Base case (12–14x)
$0.021–0.025
Fallen star re-rates (16–18x)
$0.026–0.031
Sell-side mean target is about $0.028; the recent price is $0.017.
- Two-sided by design. The bear band (flat EPS, 9–11x) tops out near today's price; the base case (margins hold, 12–14x) runs to $0.021–0.025; a genuine re-rating on reviving volume reaches $0.026–0.031. Five analysts sit at a mean target near $0.028.
- What tips it. The outcome is most sensitive to margins and the affiliate-COGS trend: hold ~44% gross margin with mid-single-digit volume and the base case carries; slip below 43%, or let related-party purchasing climb past 46%, and the bear band wins.
What to watch
Either a fallen star with a real margin of safety, or a good business the market has simply repriced for slower growth.
- 01Consolidated gross margin: holding ~44% supports the base case; below 43% favours the bear (44.9% in Q1 2026).
- 02Related-party share of COGS: above 46% escalates the governance discount; a fall eases it (44.7% in FY2025).
- 03Payout versus free cash flow: FY2025 payout ~113% with cash down ~20% — a step-down in the ~10% yield changes the math.
- 04Delivered volume growth at or above ~6.5% would validate the tailwind thesis (FY2026 guide: value +6–10%, volume +4–8%).
This distills a study built chapter by chapter — moat, ownership, industry, valuation and downside — into fourteen screens.
Compiled from the full report · 2026-07-12 · For information, not investment advice.